US Economics Reports 30th July to 3rd Aug

By Market Watch
28 July 2012

NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

TIME (ET)	REPORT	PERIOD	ACTUAL	FORECAST	PREVIOUS
MONDAY, JULY 30
	None scheduled
TUESDAY, JULY 31
8:30 am	Personal income	June		0.4%`	0.2%
8:30 am	Consumer spending	June		0.1%	0.0%
8:30 am	Core PCE price index	June		0.2%	0.1%
8:30 am	Employment cost index	June		0.5%	0.4%
9 am	Case-Shiller home prices	May		--	1.3% nsa
9:45 am	Chicago PMI	July		52.0%	52.9%
10 am	Consumer confidence index	July		61.5	62.0
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 1
8:15 am	ADP employment	July		--	176,000
8:58 am	Markit PMI	July		--	52.5
10 am	ISM	July		50.5%	49.7%
10 am	Construction spending	June		0.4%	0.9%
2:15 pm	FOMC announcement
TBA	Motor vehicle sales	July		14.0 mln	14.1 mln
THURSDAY, AUG. 2
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	7-28		370,000	350,000
10 am	Factory orders	June		0.3%	0.7%
FRIDAY, AUG. 3
8:30 am	Nonfarm payrolls	July		110,000	80,000
8:30 am	Unemployment rate	July		8.2%	8.2%
10 am	ISM nonmanufacturing	July		52.9%	52.1%

The consumer will be in focus Tuesday as indicators on consumer spending, personal income, consumer confidence and S&P/Case-Shiller home prices are released.

Housing data has become somewhat of a bright spot, according to Prudential’s Praveen, but don’t expect a big pop in the consumer numbers. “We might see some modest gains, but it’s not going to be enough to make a dent,” he said.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release a policy statement on Wednesday. Analysts are mixed over whether members will agree to another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, to give the stalling economy a jolt. Read more on what's expected from Fed.

“I think the probability of QE3 has increased significantly because of the GDP report,” Praveen elaborated. “I suspect [the committee] will move in August; otherwise it comes too close to the elections. If they do act, they will have to do it in a big way. Doing something token is not going to be meaningful.”

Praveen noted that if the central bank does expand its easing program, it will likely choose other kinds of assets, such as mortgage-backed securities, over Treasurys, to the tune of “around $500 billion.”

But Albright of Wilmington Trust is more circumspect. “There will be debate, but you won’t see QE announced at this meeting. We might hear language coming out that they’re inching closer to that.

“There are a lot of questions over how effective a third round of easing will be,” he said. “We’ve seen declining benefits from some of the programs they’ve put in place.”

Ramp-up to jobs data

On Wednesday, investors get the first stab at jobs data, with the ADP employment report, plus a July manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management.

They can also expect the release of motor-vehicle sales for July from the Big Three auto makers: Chrysler, General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. All three companies posted healthy year-on-year new vehicle sales in June. Research firm J.D. Power and Associates estimates annual light-vehicle retail sales are tracking 11.5 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and factory orders start the day, plus retailers’ reports. A barrage of July same-store sales data from retailers including Costco Wholesale Corp. , Target Corp. , Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. will hit investors, with analysts bracing for the worst. The sales are expected to give investors an early sense of how back-to-school sales are shaping up.

“There’s clearly hesitation in terms of how much people are willing to spend, and I don’t see that changing much over the next months,” Albright commented.

Weak consumer demand will likewise present itself as companies like Pfizer Inc. , MasterCard Inc. , Kraft Foods Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co. are slated to release results next week

Of the 265 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, only 43% beat sales estimates. This marks the lowest percentage for sales beats since the first quarter of 2009, according to FactSet. 

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